2012 Euro Cup semifinals: Italy vs. Germany, Las Vegas odds and choose

The 2012 Euro Cup is down to the last four teams, so when Italy and Germany square off Thursday afternoon they'll be playing to manage the winner of the Spain vs. Portugal game which takes place later today.
Recent history between those two teams favors Italy, but Germany doesn't value days gone by, they're centered on the sport accessible.
The German squad have never beaten Italy inside a competitive match.
"We can't reverse time, ignore over it, days website gone by doesn't be the cause inside our planning," said German Coach Joachim Loew. "Another stat is the fact that Germany has never won against Italy in the major tournament, but what exactly?"
Las Vegas odds makers must feel it is time for Germany to win as these are the widely used at -135. The Over/Under number is 2.5.
This game will probably be a hardcore, hard fought match. My buddies are telling me that I am going the wrong manner for this match, but here it is anyways!
Pick - Italy

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